Px
Private credit, decoded —
the machinery behind the yield
Market data 2026-06-04| BDC NAVs Q1 2026 (as of 2026-03-31)| scanned 2026-06-06
Risk regime
public-credit calm, private marks weakening
01The read
The dominant risk regime reads public-credit calm, private marks weakening. [ HY OAS ]High-yield option-adjusted spread — the extra yield investors demand to hold risky high-yield bonds over safe Treasuries. A quick credit fear gauge. at 2.74% (falling, -0.05 over ~30d) — no broad credit-stress signal in the [ spread ]The extra rate a borrower pays over the benchmark (e.g. SOFR + 5.5%) — the lender's compensation for credit risk. this run. (Green = no warning detected, not 'safe'.) The clearest signal this run is valuation: [ NAV ]Net asset value — the per-share value of a fund's portfolio, marked quarterly (often by model, not live trades). per share fell quarter-over-quarter at 11 of 12 watched [ BDCs ]Business Development Company — a regulated, often-listed vehicle that pools money to lend to private companies. Retail's on-ramp to private credit. (worst, FSK at -9.9%) — broad mark erosion. NAV is a model-marked, quarter-end figure, so it is a lagging read, not a live price. Income coverage, [ non-accruals ]A loan the fund stopped booking interest on because it no longer expects full payment — a hard sign a credit has gone bad., [ PIK ]Payment-in-kind — interest paid by adding to the loan balance instead of cash. Eases borrower strain but lets debt compound quietly. reliance, and [ leverage ]How much a fund borrows on top of investors' capital to make loans. It magnifies both income and losses. remain Unknown this run — those sit in filing footnotes Px has not yet parsed, so Px withholds them rather than guess.
02Investor consequence
So what
High-yield spreads, at 2.74%, are not signalling broad panic, but BDC portfolio marks are quietly softening. The next question is the one Px exists to ask: are these distributions still covered by recurring cash income, or are headline yields being maintained while NAV erodes? That answer lives in the next round of fund filings — not in the tape.
03Key signals
HY OAS
2.74%
▼ improving
FRED
BDC NAV
11/12 ↓
▲ worsening
SEC XBRL
Filings
6 new
· informational
EDGAR
Reg items
5
· informational
FedReg/SEC
04Private credit · BDC watch
NAV per share QoQ across watched BDCs, worst first. Px does not recommend buying or selling.
← NAV fellNAV rose →
FSK-9.9% ▾
NMFC-5.2% ▾
TSLX-4.4% ▾
GBDC-3.3% ▾
OBDC-2.7% ▾
PSEC-2.6% ▾
BXSL-2.5% ▾
CGBD-2.3% ▾
HTGC-1.9% ▾
ARCC-1.8% ▾
BBDC-0.6% ▾
MAIN+0.4% ▴
NAV per share, QoQ — model-marked quarter-end figures, worst first.
FSK-9.9%
FS KKR Capital Corp
NMFC-5.2%
New Mountain Finance Corp
TSLX-4.4%
Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Inc.
GBDC-3.3%
GOLUB CAPITAL BDC, Inc.
OBDC-2.7%
Blue Owl Capital Corp
PSEC-2.6%
PROSPECT CAPITAL CORP
BXSL-2.5%
Blackstone Secured Lending Fund
CGBD-2.3%
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.
HTGC-1.9%
Hercules Capital, Inc.
ARCC-1.8%
ARES CAPITAL CORP
BBDC-0.6%
Barings BDC, Inc.
MAIN+0.4%
Main Street Capital CORP
Fresh filings
05Macro credit conditions
[ SOFR ]Secured Overnight Financing Rate — the US benchmark most private-credit loans float over. Move it and borrowers' rates move. is 3.62% and flat (+0.00 over ~30 days). Most direct-lending loans float over SOFR, so a flat-to-lower SOFR eases borrower interest burdens at the margin.
The ICE BofA US High-Yield [ OAS ]Option-adjusted spread — the yield premium of risky bonds over safe ones; a fast read on how nervous credit markets are. is 2.74% and falling (-0.05 over ~30 days). Widening spreads mean the market is repricing credit risk higher; private marks tend to lag this public signal.
06Regulatory & legal watch
Antares Private Credit Fund, et al.Why it matters — Directly references private-credit / BDC vehicles — informational unless it alters leverage, valuation, or disclosure obligations.
Federal Register · 2025-12-01
Stepstone Private Credit Fund LLC, et al.Why it matters — Directly references private-credit / BDC vehicles — informational unless it alters leverage, valuation, or disclosure obligations.
Federal Register · 2026-02-12
Lord Abbett Private Credit Fund, et al.Why it matters — Directly references private-credit / BDC vehicles — informational unless it alters leverage, valuation, or disclosure obligations.
Federal Register · 2026-03-30
AGL Private Credit Income Fund, et al.Why it matters — Directly references private-credit / BDC vehicles — informational unless it alters leverage, valuation, or disclosure obligations.
Federal Register · 2026-04-24
Policy context (not private-credit-specific)
07Risk radar
Green = no warning detected (not safe)Amber = watchRed = material deteriorationUnknown = insufficient data
Credit StressGREEN
HY OAS at 2.74% (falling, -0.05 over ~30d) — no broad credit-stress signal in the spread this run. (Green = no warning detected, not 'safe'.)
NAV / ValuationAMBER
NAV per share fell quarter-over-quarter at 11 of 12 watched BDCs — broad, if often mild, mark erosion. NAV per share is a model-marked, quarter-end figure, not a live price.
Regulatory RiskAMBER
5 private-credit-relevant item(s) surfaced by the regulatory scan — informational/monitoring.
Yield QualityUNKNOWN
Px cannot verify this from the provided sources — the available material lacks the borrower- or portfolio-level detail required.
LiquidityUNKNOWN
Px cannot verify this from the provided sources — the available material lacks the borrower- or portfolio-level detail required.
LeverageUNKNOWN
Px cannot verify this from the provided sources — the available material lacks the borrower- or portfolio-level detail required.
DisclosureUNKNOWN
Px cannot verify this from the provided sources — the available material lacks the borrower- or portfolio-level detail required.
08Known limitations this run
Px has parsed NAV/share and macro signals, but has not yet extracted these from BDC footnotes — so the flags tied to them stay Unknown until the filing parser expands:
- NII / dividend coverage
- PIK income reliance
- Non-accruals (at cost & fair value)
- Leverage (debt/equity)
- Sector & top-borrower concentration
09Glossary term of the day
[ non-accrual ]When a lender stops booking interest on a loan because it no longer expects to be paid — a hard signal that a credit has gone bad. When a lender stops booking interest on a loan because it no longer expects to be paid — a hard signal that a credit has gone bad.
Tap or hover any [ term ]Bracketed terms across the briefing explain themselves in plain English on tap or hover. to learn it.
10What to watch next
- Next quarterly BDC/credit-fund filings (10-Q/10-K) for non-accrual %, PIK income, and [ dividend coverage ]Whether a fund's recurring cash income actually covers the distribution it pays. The core test of whether a yield is real or borrowed..
- Direction of the HY OAS — sustained widening would pressure private marks with a lag.
- SOFR path and its effect on leveraged-borrower interest coverage.
- New or amended risk-factor language in filings (added caveats are an early tell).
- Redemption-cap, gate, or tender-offer notices from interval/evergreen vehicles.